Thursday, March 13, 2014

Conservatives Need to be Aware of what Happened in Florida as they face 2016

Michael Mishak & Tamara Lush  (Real Clear Politics) report  That with almost 100 percent of the vote counted, David Jolly had 48.5 percent of the vote to Alex Sink's 46.7 percent. 

"Libertarian Lucas Overby had 4.8 percent. The election was to replace 42-year Republican Rep. CW Bill Young, who died in October of cancer, and the evenly divided district had been considered a toss-up 

Both Republicans and Democrats, of course, are spinning the election results to their favor. Conservatives, however,  need to look serious again at the Libertarian factor as it could play a part again in the 2016 election. On this election Republicans got lucky because the third party factor did not lose the election. Had the Libertarian vote gone to Jolly, Alex Sink would have still lost.   In 2012, Mitt Romney took 47,20% of the vote while Barack Obama took 51.06% which left about 3.80 %  to "other" (all the other people running). Assuming all the "other" has been cast for Romney it would have been dead heat with Obama winning by less then 1%.  

 However, not all the "other" were right leaning (Rosanne Barr, etc) so it's that "other" factor that can make or break an election. Bill Clinton would NOT have been elected in his first  run had it not been for Ross Perot. Disgruntled conservatives put their votes to Perot and between George HW Bush  and Perot they both beat Clinton. Clinton however had the advantage of votes and won the election without a majority because of the  split on the right. If this happens again in 2016 and we see a fractured conservative base or Tea Party choose someone else instead of the Republican candidate, it will be an easy win for any Democrat. Democrats are encouraging a Tea Party vs Republican turf war because they have everything to win from it. They could even get Hillary "What Difference Does It Make" Clinton into office. (SOURCE: "Republican David Jolly Wins Florida Congressional Race")