Michael Mishak & Tamara Lush (Real Clear Politics)
report That with almost 100 percent of the vote counted, David Jolly
had 48.5 percent of the vote to Alex Sink's 46.7 percent.
"Libertarian
Lucas Overby had 4.8 percent. The election was to replace 42-year
Republican Rep. CW Bill Young, who died in October of cancer, and the
evenly divided district had been considered a toss-up"
Both Republicans and Democrats,
of course, are spinning the election results to their favor.
Conservatives, however, need to look serious again at the Libertarian factor as it
could play a part again in the 2016 election. On this election Republicans got lucky because the third party factor did not lose the election. Had the Libertarian vote gone to Jolly, Alex Sink would have still lost. In 2012, Mitt Romney took 47,20% of the vote while Barack Obama
took 51.06% which left about 3.80 % to "other" (all the other people
running). Assuming all the "other" has been cast for Romney it would
have been dead heat with Obama winning by less then 1%.
However, not
all the "other" were right leaning (Rosanne Barr, etc) so it's that
"other" factor that can make or break an election. Bill Clinton
would NOT have been elected in his first run had it not been for Ross
Perot. Disgruntled conservatives put their votes to Perot and between
George HW Bush and Perot they both beat Clinton. Clinton however had
the advantage of votes and won the election without a majority because
of the split on the right. If this happens again in 2016 and we see a
fractured conservative base or Tea Party choose someone else instead of
the Republican
candidate, it will be an easy win for any Democrat. Democrats are
encouraging a Tea Party vs Republican turf war because they have
everything to win from it. They could even get Hillary "What Difference Does It Make" Clinton into office. (SOURCE: "Republican David Jolly Wins Florida Congressional Race")
